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Great Lakes Ice Cover Drops to One of the Lowest Levels Ever Recorded

By Editor Feb 13, 2024 #Ice #NOAA

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), last month, the average ice cover over the five Great Lakes was just 6%, making it one of the least icy Januarys since records began 50 years ago. These lakes, namely Superior, Huron, Michigan, Erie, and Ontario, are situated at or near the US-Canada border and are connected by a network of smaller lakes and rivers, occupying a combined surface area of 95,000 sq miles, making it the largest freshwater system in the world.

Although some year-to-year variation in ice cover is normal, scientists warn that global heating is driving the loss of ice and warmer water temperatures, and if no action is taken soon, it is expected to worsen.

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“In direct response to warming air temperatures, we are observing rapid ice loss and warming summer water temperatures,” said Professor Sapna Sharma, an expert in environmental stressors on lakes at York University in Toronto. “If the planet continues to warm, 215,000 lakes may no longer freeze every winter and almost 5,700 lakes may permanently lose ice cover by the end of the century.”

The Great Lakes are home to over 20% of the world’s freshwater, with Lake Superior holding half of that amount. It is the largest and most northern of the five lakes. Records show that there has been a 25% decrease in basin-wide ice cover and a trend towards fewer frozen days across the Great Lakes since 1973.

“There is a trend: a 5% decline in average ice cover per decade, which may not sound huge but it is a substantial decrease,” said James Kessler, a physical scientist and ice expert at Noaa’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab.

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“Open [unfrozen] lakes bring more rain rather than snow, which has knock-on environmental, cultural and societal impacts.”

Certain regions have been affected more severely than others by the impacts of global heating. Historical data from ice records dating back to 1857 indicates that several bays on Lake Superior used to freeze every winter until around 1997. However, with the intensification of global heating, some of these bays have undergone entirely ice-free winters.

“The Great Lakes are now experiencing much lower ice cover, but in many regions, no ice at all. Large and deep lakes, including bays in Lakes Michigan and Superior, are most likely to permanently lose ice cover as soon as the 2060s if greenhouse gas emissions are not mitigated,” said Sharma.

The water system of the Great Lakes is both deep and expansive. Any changes that occur in these lakes do not stay confined to the lakes alone. During years with less or no ice cover, the lakes experience higher rates of evaporation, which leads to warmer water and lower oxygen levels. This makes it harder for native Coldwater fish to survive, which in turn affects the entire food chain. The increased evaporation rates also lead to lower water levels and fewer wetlands in the surrounding areas. This adds stress on animal species that are already struggling to find food and adapt to warmer temperatures.

The snow and ice are essential to the culture and tourism of the Great Lakes region. The area offers outdoor activities such as tobogganing, skating, dogsledding, and ice fishing. In addition, the region has a multibillion-dollar snow removal industry. In winters with less snow and ice, recreational activities are canceled, tourism takes a hit, and the number of drownings rises due to unstable ice.

Less ice also enables hundreds of cargo ships to navigate the Great Lakes year-round, reducing the need for ice breakers to clear shipping channels. This saves money for the commercial shipping industry.

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