The natural and climatic data of North Kazakhstan are considered the most optimal environment for the spread and harmfulness of all locust species, including nongregarious species. When studying the nature of the distribution of pests invading crops, in particular locusts, makes it possible to identify their ecological features, find stable population parameters and build sound approaches to predicting their spatial distribution in the study area. Predictive simulation of the geographical distribution of the studied object has become an important tool in agroecology, since it uses the previous information about the spatial distribution of species in the ecosystem, limiting predictive models to the nearest ecological niche, thus generating a forecast of possible areas of occurrence based on environmental conditions that are similar to the identified populated area. In this case, the modern simulation approach deserves special attention. Such models are often referred to as species distribution models (SDM), habitat suitability, or ecological niche models (ENM). Species distribution models (SDMs) constitute the most common class of models across ecology, evolution and conservation. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are empirical or mathematical approaches to several types of species ecological niches, relating respectively physiological (mechanistic models) or distribution data (correlative models) to environmental predictor variables. SDM usually does not require an in-depth analysis of variables and simply provides a map of suitable habitat for a species. A predefined (or “customized”) set of variables based on the biology of the species is usually used. SDM is a purely statistical approach that is loosely related to the natural features of the species. ENM is performed the same as SDM but includes an expanded set of factors.
Author(s) Details:
Kurmet Baibussenov
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University, 62 Zhenis Ave., 010011, Nur-Sultan, Republic of Kazakhstan.
Aigul Bekbayeva
S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical University, 62 Zhenis Ave., 010011, Nur-Sultan, Republic of
Kazakhstan
Valery Azhbenov
Zh. Zhyembaev Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Plant Protection and Quarantine, 1 Kultobe
Str., 050000, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan.
Recent Global Research Developments in Simulating NonGregarious Locust Habitats in North Kazakhstan
A recent study titled “Simulation of Favorable Habitats for Non-Gregarious Locust Pests in North Kazakhstan” investigated the potential spread of non-gregarious locust pests in that region. The researchers used satellite and ground data to conduct their simulation, employing the MaxEnt software [1]. Here are the key findings:
Species Distribution Model:
- The study predicted high habitat indicators for non-gregarious locusts in the Pavlodar and Kostanay regions, covering 69.9–100% of the studied territory.
- In the central and northern parts of the Pavlodar region, the probability of locust occurrence was observed in a slightly arid, moderately warm agro-climatic zone.
- The southern part of the Kostanay region also showed a probability of occurrence in a moderately arid warm agro-climatic zone.
Ecological Niche Model:
- The model determined class boundaries for the transition from quantitative to qualitative indicators, indicating zones of pest attack probability.
- In the Akmola region, the model predicted occurrence probabilities in slightly humid, moderately warm agro-climatic zones.
References
- Baibussenov, K., Bekbayeva, A., & Azhbenov, V. (2022). Simulation of Favorable Habitats for Non-Gregarious Locust Pests in North Kazakhstan Based on Satellite Data for Preventive Measures. Journal of Ecological Engineering, 23(7).
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